导读：乌兹别克斯坦共和国将于7月9日举行总统大选。现任总统米尔济约耶夫有望获得连任。乌新任驻华公使图尔苏诺夫·巴体尔先生为观察者网独家撰稿，展望大选之后这个中亚腹地国家的下一步发展轨迹，对中亚稳定和发展的影响，以及对华关系前景。
【文/观察者网专栏作者 图尔苏诺夫·巴体尔】
乌兹别克斯坦将于2023年7月9日举行提前的总统选举，这或将是这个中亚腹地人口大国今年最重要的政治事件。
乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地区唯一与所有其他地区国家都接壤的国家，这包括哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和阿富汗。今天，乌兹别克斯坦的人口超过3600万，几乎占中亚地区约7800万总人口的一半。目前，乌兹别克斯坦是“后苏联空间”中继俄罗斯和乌克兰之后的第三大人口大国。在上世纪90年代初，这个中亚共和国的人口约为2000万人。
乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地区具有丰富人文底蕴和经济潜力的大国（图片来源：网络）
来自该国各政党的四名候选人已登记参加乌兹别克斯坦的总统选举，包括人民民主党的乌卢格别克·伊诺亚托夫，社会民主党“公正”的罗巴洪·马赫穆多娃，生态党的阿布杜舒库尔·哈姆扎耶夫，以及现任总统沙夫卡特·米尔济约耶夫。“民族复兴”民主党没有提名自己的候选人，而是选择支持米尔济约耶夫。
外界观察人士称，如果米尔济约耶夫成功连任，他将继续推行2016年初任时即宣布的大刀阔斧改革进程。事实上，乌兹别克斯坦此时已经进入了一个深刻变革与系统性转型的阶段。
乌兹别克斯坦的大规模改革波及社会和国家的所有领域，包括其外交政策，使乌兹别克斯坦摇身变为中亚最具活力的发展中国家。2023年4月举行的全民公决更新了《乌兹别克斯坦共和国宪法》，巩固了乌社会和国家现代化的战略路线，对乌外交政策产生了积极影响，尤其是在中亚地区。
即将举行的选举结果将决定乌兹别克斯坦下一步发展轨迹。米尔济约耶夫总统多次指出，政府仍有许多工作要做，但改革、更新和现代化是不可逆转的。世界银行专家指出，尽管全世界，尤其是欧洲和中亚地区的经济形势较为艰难，但乌兹别克斯坦仍然致力于推行最重要的改革。米尔济约耶夫总统启动的大规模改革计划已经取得了重大进展，特别是推行经济的开放。
分析人士称，乌兹别克斯坦的经济现代化和其日益增长的政治开放性将推动整个中亚地区的经济增长和政治稳定。乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地区人口最多的国家，也是其地理中心。这些特点使乌成为该地区政治和经济的天然风向标。
乌兹别克斯坦的经济转型和开放政策对中亚的稳定、安全和发展非常重要。正如米尔济约耶夫总统所指出：“我们的主要目标是共同将中亚建成一个稳定、经济发达和繁荣的地区。”
自获得独立以来，中亚各国首次证明它们不仅有能力采取联合行动，确保其公民的福祉和繁荣，还有能力就共同的区域难题做出决定。今天，中亚各国正在不断努力推行地区安全与稳定、实现社会经济可持续发展的艰巨任务。
我们在短时间内消除了很多障碍，首先是敏感的边界问题。我们为中亚各国公民的自由流动、开展积极的文化和旅游交流创造了条件。我们首次启动了联合工业合作项目，开始构建新的价值链。乌兹别克斯坦与吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的投资基金已经建立，将为工业、农业部门、能源、基础设施、汽车和其他领域的项目提供资金。
中亚地区已经形成了一个有利的营商环境，有助于贸易的增长。乌兹别克斯坦已经开始与该地区的几乎所有国家建立边境贸易和经济区。得益于此，区域内贸易在过去五年间翻了一番，这是一个史无前例的成果。在此期间，该地区各国的GDP总量增加了750亿美元，达到3580亿美元。这些变化都对中亚国家人民的日常生活带来了积极影响，改善了他们的生活，有助于加强该地区的稳定。显然，乌兹别克斯坦的改革及其新的地区政策促进了中亚国家经济发展的增速。
在过去的五年间，中亚发生了深刻的变化，从一个紧张和冲突的地区变成了一个互信、合作与和睦的地区。中亚国家领导人所关注的议题也发生了变化，现在主要的合作议题转变为贸易、经济、投资、文化和人道主义等领域的互联互通。
简而言之，近年来，乌兹别克斯坦与邻国的合作已经具备了全新、系统性和动态的特征。国际社会认识到，只有一个稳定、动态发展、繁荣的中亚地区才能成为有吸引力的、建设性的、可长期的合作伙伴。
乌兹别克斯坦于2017年发起的中亚国家元首协商会议机制已成功启动，助力形成共识，共同探索解决区域安全和可持续发展难题。积极的、建设性的政治对话将加强互信，让中亚国家对中亚的现在和未来承担共同责任。在此期间，乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和土库曼斯坦的双边关系已升级战略伙伴关系，与哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦已升级至同盟关系。
今天，该地区国家正在 "中亚+"对话形式的框架内与主要国家建立平衡、建设性和互利的关系。2023年5月，中亚国家与中国的第一次领导人峰会在中国古城西安成功举办，为中亚国家与中国关系的历史翻开了展新的一页。
同时，乌兹别克斯坦还在上海合作组织框架内与中国积极开展合作。在2022年9月撒马尔罕峰会期间，中国国家主席习近平对乌兹别克斯坦进行了国事访问，这再次证实了两国之间全面战略伙伴关系的高水平。乌兹别克斯坦和中国在伟大的丝绸之路上有着数百年的联系，在“一带一路”倡议的框架下开展了富有成效的合作。米尔济约耶夫总统参加了2017年和2019年在北京举行的两次高级别国际论坛。
总的来说，这次选举结果将决定乌兹别克斯坦的内部发展轨迹，反映出中亚区域合作的趋势和乌中全面战略伙伴关系的前景。其中重要的因素是坚持大规模改革的路线，以及继续推行乌兹别克斯坦共和国开放、平衡的外交政策。
翻页为英文全文：
Elections in Uzbekistan: a factor of stability and development in Central Asia
Early elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan will be held in Uzbekistan on July 9, 2023. This is perhaps the most important political event this year in the most populous country located in the heart of Central Asia.
Uzbekistan is the only state in Central Asia that borders with all other countries of the region – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Today, the population of Uzbekistan is over 36 million people, or almost half of the population of the entire region – about 78 million people.
Currently, Uzbekistan is the third most populous country in the post-Soviet space after Russia and Ukraine. In the early 90s of the last century, the population of this Central Asian republic was about 20 million people.
Four candidates from the country's political parties have been registered to participate in the presidential elections in Uzbekistan. In particular, Ulugbek Inoyatov – from the People's Democratic Party, Robakhon Makhmudova – from the Social Democratic Party "Adolat" (Justice), Abdushukur Khamzayev – from the Ecoparty, as well as the current President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
“Milliy Tiklanish” Party (National Revival) did not nominate its candidate, but supported the candidacy of Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
According to observers, if elected, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will continue his course of large-scale reforms, which he announced when he assumed the post of head of state at the end of 2016. And, indeed, Uzbekistan has entered a period of profound changes and systemic transformation.
Large-scale reforms in Uzbekistan, which affected all spheres of life of Uzbek society and the state, including its foreign policy, contributed to the transformation of this country into the most dynamically developing country in the region. The Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan, updated during the referendum held in April 2023, consolidated the country's strategic course for the modernization of society and the state, which had a positive impact on its foreign policy, primarily in the Central Asian region.
The results of the upcoming elections will determine the trajectory where Uzbekistan will move on in its further development. There is still much to be done, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has repeatedly noted, but reforms, renewal and modernization are irreversible.
The World Bank experts noted that Uzbekistan remains committed to the most important reforms, despite the difficult situation around the world and in the region of Europe and Central Asia. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has launched a large-scale reform program, in which significant progress has been made, especially in the field of economic liberalization.
According to analysts, the economic modernization of Uzbekistan and its growing political openness can have huge consequences for economic growth and political stability throughout Central Asia. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia and its geographical center. These features make him a natural and historical trendsetter of political and economic fashion in the region.
The transformation of Uzbekistan's economy and the policy of openness are important for the stability, security and development of Central Asia. As the President of Uzbekistan noted: "Our main goal is to jointly transform Central Asia into a stable, economically developed and prosperous region."
For the first time since gaining their independence, the Central Asian States have confirmed their ability not only to take joint actions to ensure the well-being and prosperity of their citizens, but also to make decisions on common regional problems. Today, the countries of the region are consistently solving the difficult tasks of ensuring security and stability, sustainable socio-economic development of Central Asia.
A lot of barriers have been eliminated in a short time, first of all, sensitive border problems. Conditions have been created for the free movement of citizens, active cultural and tourist exchanges between the countries of the region.
For the first time, the implementation of joint industrial cooperation projects has been launched, new value chains are being created. Investment funds of Uzbekistan with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been established to finance projects in the fields of industry, the agricultural sector, energy, infrastructure, automotive and other areas.
A favorable environment has been formed in Central Asia, which contributes to the growth of mutual trade. Uzbekistan has started creating border trade and economic zones with almost all countries of the region. Thanks to this, intraregional trade has doubled over the past five years. This is an unprecedented case. The total GDP of the countries of the region increased by $75 billion during this period. to over $358 billion.
All these changes have a positive impact on the daily life of the peoples of the Central Asian countries, improving their well-being, contributing to strengthening stability in the region. It is obvious that the reforms in Uzbekistan and its new regional policy have contributed to a serious acceleration of the economic development of the Central Asian countries.
Over the past five years, there has been a serious transformation of Central Asia, which has gone from a region of tension and conflict to a zone of mutual trust, cooperation and partnership. The agenda of the leaders of the Central Asian states has changed, in which issues of implementing common projects of interconnectedness in the spheres of trade, economy, investment, cultural and humanitarian ties already prevail today.
In short, in recent years, the dynamic trends of Uzbekistan's cooperation with neighboring states have acquired a qualitatively new, systemic and dynamic character. The international community recognizes that only a stable, dynamically developing and prosperous Central Asia can become an attractive, constructive and long-term partner.
This is evidenced by the fact that during this short period, Uzbekistan's bilateral relations with the countries of the region have been raised to the level of strategic partnership (Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan) and alliance (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan).
The mechanism of Consultative Meetings of the heads of Central Asian States initiated by Uzbekistan in 2017 has been successfully launched, contributing to the formation of common approaches and joint search for solutions to problems of regional security and sustainable development. An active, constructive political dialogue has become a key factor in strengthening mutual trust and the common responsibility of the Central Asian States for the present and future of the region.
Today, the countries of the region are building balanced, constructive and mutually beneficial relations with leading states within the framework of the dialogue format "Central Asia Plus". Thus, in May 2023, the first summit of the leaders of the Central Asian countries and China was successfully held in the ancient city of Xi'an, which opened a new page in the history of relations between the countries of the region and China.
At the same time, Uzbekistan actively cooperates with China within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As part of participation in the Samarkand Summit in September 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Uzbekistan, which once again confirmed the high level of relations of comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.
Uzbekistan and China, which have centuries-old ties along the Great Silk Road, are carrying out fruitful cooperation within the framework of the Belt and Road initiative. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took part in two high-level international forums held in Beijing in 2017 and 2019.
In general, summarizing the above, we can say that the election results will determine the trajectory of Uzbekistan's internal development, reflecting on the dynamics of regional cooperation in Central Asia and the prospects of Uzbek-Chinese relations of comprehensive strategic partnership. Important factors in this are the preservation of the course for large-scale reforms and the continuation of an open, balanced foreign policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
本文系观察者网独家稿件，文章内容纯属作者个人观点，不代表平台观点，未经授权，不得转载，否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn，每日阅读趣味文章。
声明：该文观点仅代表作者本人，本信息平台不持有任何立场，欢迎在下方【顶/踩】按钮中亮出您的态度。